Topic

Menu

Home
Up

Best Gambling

Bookmark and Share

Money Management

Thoughts on Money Management

It takes a lot of money to win at video poker assuming, of course, that you're playing a winning game in the first place. What I mean by that, is the game you choose must be one with a 100% or more long term payback and you have to be playing the hands the correct way. We covered the basics of that in Part 1, so please review that if you haven't already done so. But my previous statement does not mean that you have to find a 'hot' machine, or one that's 'due'. That means nothing in video poker. Assuming that the pay schedules are the same, one machine's as good as another. The best way to explain what I mean is to do it the way I explained it to my friend Fred recently.

He and I were taking a break from some play when he brought up the subject of 'hot' machines. I told him that such things don't matter, since the only way to tell whether a machine was hot or cold was after you had played it. Machines DO get hot, but there's no way to predict it in advance. Like I told Fred, just imagine that you're at your kitchen table and you're dealing poker hands to yourself. If you changed decks of cards, would you expect different results? The deck -- or machine -- that you play doesn't make a difference. What matters is what YOU see; and the only way we can predict what you'll see is through the averages of hands appearing. On average, you'll receive a full house once every 90 hands. Does this mean you can't get two full houses in a row? Not at all; hell, I got three in a row not too long ago. But those will work out to 1 every 90 hands, on average. Those three in a row may have 'made up' for a time when I went 300 hands without a full house. I don't know, because I don't track my play that closely, but hopefully you get the idea.

The fact that we can expect, on average. one full house every ninety hands is what's called 'expectation'. That is, we 'expect' to get a full house every 90 hands. We can use that knowledge to help us 'invest' in video poker. "Invest?", you say. "Don't you mean gamble?" Well, no I don't; I mean invest. If the long term expectation of a machine is over 100% and I play only machines of that type and I play them correctly for a long enough time, I will realize a more than 100% return on al the $$$ in put into those machines. Now, it may take an investment of $4000 or more, but if I keep my discipline, I'll get it all back. Now I understand that most of you probably don't have $4000 to invest in video poker, but since most of you do have sources of renewable funds (a job), you can invest piecemeal. Let's say you like to go to your local casino once a week and you're willing to invest $100 in video poker each trip. If the games there are beatable (100+% payback), you can play them week after week to your $100 limit and one fine day you'll hit a royal flush which will either show a profit for you or will at least make some of your $$$ back. Keep playing and eventually your expectation will be realized. Let's say you play a game with a 100.2% payback and there's a .25% slot club available. If you play for 5 hours a week at a rate of 500 hands an hour (very possible), for 50 weeks, you'll have played 5 X 500 X 50 = 125,000 hands in a year. The total amount bet will be $1.25 (5 coins) X 125,000 = $156,250!! Imagine; your little part-time job generates over $150,000 in yearly revenue. Your expectation on that is .2% (.002) X $156,250 = $312.00. In addition, you will get back from the .25% slot club another $390 for a total of $702. Only $702 for a whole year? Well, think about it. If you're currently playing slots, it's probably costing you $1000 a year or more at the same playing levels. Plus, how many free drinks and buffets and heaven-knows-what-else will you get?

Does this mean you can't do better? No. If you play faster, or play higher-paying machines or in bigger denominations, like 50-cent or $1 or $5 machines, you can do a whole lot better. But, you're also increasing your risk and your monetary requirements. You could take the same $100 and play a dollar machine, but it will take about 5 times as long to get the same return, simply because there will be many times when you pump in the hundred bucks in ten minutes and it's all gone. So, unless you're willing to make a MUCH bigger investment, stick with quarter machines for now.

So, just what are the odds of losing for a whole year; that is, putting $5000 in a quarter machine and having nothing to show for it? Well, nothing's impossible, but it' s not likely, either. The key, of course, is how often you get a royal. If it's the second hand you play on January 1st, you may show a profit all year long. On the other hand, if you don't hit your first royal until sometime in June, you'll likely still be a couple of thousand in the hole. The bankroll required to be 90% sure of hitting a royal at a game like the one above (basically a double bonus poker game) is about $2500. At a rate of $100 a week, you ought to hit one no later than July 4th.

The real trick to all this is discipline. You must play correctly; you must play only machines with an adequate payback and you must not be tempted to 'go for it'. A steady, well-informed, calm, approach is what will bring home the bacon.